PROJECT FINAL REPORT (March 2001 – March 2002)

OSI International Policy fellow

George Tarkhan-Mouravi

New Factors, Initiatives & Perceptions of Regional Security:
Feasibility & Implications of a "Stability Pact for South Caucasus"

(The Future of the Caucasus)

Project Brief

My research project intended to analyse how security-related policies are developed in a transitional society in their correlation to democratic processes and economic development, to explore the nature and dynamics of strategic preferences and perceptions of security threats among political élites and the population of Georgia and other parts of former Soviet periphery. These developments and changes were to be studied as revealed through political statements, interviews, in public discourse and voting - resulting from changing geopolitical realities such as: EU and NATO expansion to the East, Kosovo crisis and NATO involvement, the change by international community in reacting to regional crises from piecemeal approach to comprehensive regional solutions, implications of the war in Chechnya, new assertive Russian international policies and changing relations between Russia and the West. It was intended to investigate also the impact of international regimes and conflict prevention tools on local actors, and the impact of external policies and humanitarian/mediating interventions as geared to such arrangements, also the normative assumptions of actors both inside and outside of the specific region.

The study of military-strategic and political developments is aimed at better understanding of political processes of Georgian/Caucasian societies and conceptual changes going in their depth, on their role in establishing regional security, stability and co-operation. Another focus of the study is on how through globalisation and the impact of events in remote regions of the world, is formed the new understanding of internationally recognised codes of behaviour and of acceptable political options. Analysis is applied to studying various models of comprehensive solutions for achieving regional security and development objectives, and in particular on investigating feasibility and implications of a "Stability Pact for South Caucasus", an analogue of the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe, that has been proposed, in different forms and wording by leading political figures in the region, including the presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey. These models are analysed against the background of understanding of the security issues for the Caucasus among the political élites in the countries that play the most significant role in current events – i.e. political actors such as the USA, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the states of Southern Caucasus – Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

An assessment is conducted to articulate perceived obstacles to the development of regional security/stability instruments and arrangements — particularly the psychological and political obstacles — from both the Georgian and the regional perspectives. It was intended that the final outcome of the fellowship to be a book on regional security in the Caucasus, providing a synthetic analysis of the completed research and its conclusions. In addition, a number of publications were to be prepared on security issues from comparative perspective. The ultimate goal was and is supporting the development of long-term, strategic thinking and planing among top-level policy-makers in the region, empowering the society at large to follow, discuss, understand and participate in designing the country security related (and other important) policies.

Implementation process and conditions

During the last year, a number of regional and global developments took place that changed the perspective and the conditions for conducting the planned research. These were such events as introducing by Russia of the visa regime for Georgian citizens (thus I found it easier to apply for Hungarian visa in New York), creation of a new potential conflict zone in the Pankisi valley on the Chechenian border, the initiatives of the US government in the direction of solving the Karabakh conflict, the new clashes involving Chechenian fighters in the conflict zone in Abkhazia, the September 11 events in New York and Washington and the subsequent reshaping of the geopolitical disposition of forces. These developments have influenced both the timetable and the content of my work.

Initially, when awarded the OSI IP fellowship, I intended to start my research work in mid-July 2000, as until the end of June 2001 I already had commitment to work in US in the framework of the Contemporary Issues Fellowship Program

funded by Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA), US Department of State and administered by the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX). Although we had an agreement with the IPF administration to start the project in February, along with other fellows (reducing the stipend during the overlap months) it did not work, as we appeared unable to secure US visas for my travel to Budapest, in order to attend two - February and June - workshops. Hence, we came to the agreement that I will instead participate in the 2002 workshops, i.e. my timetable got somewhat shifted.

In order to use the synergy of the two fellowships and at the same time acting within respective limitations, I have decided to carry out my work during my stay in US in the field of the social-political atmosphere and those factors of security that were linked to political culture of the population and élites, at the same time collecting necessary information enabling me to develop further work in more "regional security" direction. At the same time, during my stay in US, I attended a number of scientific gatherings and conferences, meeting a number of American experts such as doctors Stephen Jones (Mt Holyoke), Ann L. Greer (University of Wisconsin), Charles Fairbanks (SAIS, Johns Hopkins University), Georgi Derluguian and Will Reno (Northwestern University), etc. Most of my publications prepared during this time are concentrated on the issues of political and urban culture, modern history, or conflicts.

Along the same lines, in September I have started and until the end of 2001 I was collecting primary information, analysing results of existing opinion surveys and carrying out pilot polling. Parallel to this, I startednterviewing local decision-makers and experts, also collecting information about western interpretation of security-related processes in the Caucasus. During the winter-spring of 2002 I travelled in the region visiting Baku, Istanbul, and Moscow. Since returning back to Georgia I continued my research work at the Centre for Geopolitical and Regional Studies, with focus around the topics of political culture, democratic transition and regional security arrangements. During the fall of 2001 I will be analysing obtained results and cross-checking first conclusions.

In December 2001, together with another IPF fellow Dr Nana Sumbadze, and with strong support from OSI, we launched the Institute for Policy Studies. Initially, in October 2001 the idea of creating a center for public policy studies was suggested by the head of the OSI IPF leadership (Pamela Kilpadi). Representatives of other OSI programs, LGI in the first place (Petra Kovacz, Irakli Rekhviashvili, Jose de Barros) and COLPI (Zaza Namoradze), CPS (Viola Zentai) have been highly supportive and assisted in developing a more consistent and clear concept of the future institute. The issue has been discussed and approved at a workshop of the IFP Caucasus fellows, with the participation of leading OSI experts. In December 2001 the Open Society Georgia Foundation allocated initial four-month funding for the support of the preparatory work for launching the IPS. At that time we already started acting formally on behalf of the Institute of Policy Studies, organizing a Council of Europe (Dept of Social Cohesion) sponsored workshop at the Tbilisi State University, dedicated to poverty issues, using this opportunity to initiate a multi-lateral project for development of mountainous regions.

We got also involved in initiating or partnering a number of projects dealing with governmental conceptual document poverty alleviation and economic development (with Partnership for Social Initiative, sponsored by the British Department for International Development), integration project for Meskhetian Turks in Azerbaijan (with Society Development Fund), and others. I have traveled extensively in the region in order to establish useful contacts and define future partners for joint research. In the meantime we continue working on the preparation of this conceptual outline of the IPS project proposal for the OSI.

During the first half of 2002 I prepared the draft text of the IPF research and policy papers, as well as the final report.

Results and achievements

I believe that the greatest achievement during my IPF fellowship was the number, and hopefully the quality, of papers that I was able to prepare and present. My other achievements include growth of professional knowledge, acquired information about up-to-date scientific developments, a number of very useful contacts, and better understanding of the western scientific community.

During the project implemetation period, following papers and publications have been prepared:

“Some aspects of inter-ethnic relations in Georgia”, Paper at the Conference "Framework Convention on Minorities Rights and Georgian Legislation", Tbilisi, 31 January – 1 February 2002

I have also presented a paper: “The making and the re-making of the Georgian nation: challenges internal and external”, at the 2001 World Convention of the Association for the Study of Nationalities, in New York, at Harriman Institute, Columbia University, on 6th April 2001.

And another paper: “Tbilisi, Georgia: The City And The Society In Transition”, at the World Forum on Urbanizing World, held in New York, at Columbia University, on June 4-6, 2001. I had honour to be invited to participate in the Honorary Session dedicated to the memory of the late Professor Scott Greer, leading Urban Scientist.

Public lecture “Politics and democracy in Georgia: a regional perspective” was delivered at the Center for International and Comparative Studies, Northwestern University, on May 15, 2001

Together with my colleague, IP Fellow Dr N. Sumbadze I have published an extensive paper: "Democratic Value Orientations & Political Culture in Georgia", Occasional Papers in Public Administration & Public Policy of the NISPAcee (The Network of Institutes and Schools of Public Administration in Central and Eastern Europe), Bratislava, v. II, No 3, Summer 2001, pp. 3-43

I have also published two encyclopaedia articles:

"National Culture of Georgia", in: Ember, Melvin and Carol R. Ember (eds.), "Countries & Their Cultures", Macmillan Library Reference Encyclopedia, Yale & New York, 2001

and “Brief History of Georgia” in the new edition of "Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia" encyclopaedia, by Europa Publications, London, 2001.

Several other papers, jointly with N. Sumbadze:

“Repatriation and Adaptation of Georgia’s Meskhetians: Society and State in Supra-National Context” and “Poverty and Anti-Poverty Measures in Georgia: Actors, Factors, Approaches and Trends” were presented at the conference “Old and New Social Inequalities: What challenges for Welfare States?" - organised by Department of Sociology, Universidad de Oviedo, Spain, September 6-9, 2001; While the paper “Social capital and adaptation of Meskhetian repatriates” was prepared for the conference in Greece, Athens, on October 12-15, 2001.

Also: “Settlement Type of Repatriated Moslem Meskhetians and Attitudes of the Local Population toward Them”, (with Nana Sumbadze), Proceedings of the 2nd Conference 'Problems of Repatriation, Rehabilitation and Integration of the Population, Deported in 1944 from Southern Georgia', Tbilisi, Georgia, December 19, 2001. pp. 241-248. (In Georgian and Russian)

In April 2002 I am presenting a paper: “Prospects for Regional Security and Cooperation in South Caucasus: View from Georgia”, at the "Peoples, Nations, and States: A Cross-Disciplinary Convention" 7th Annual World Convention of the Association for the Study of Nationalities (ASN), Columbia University, New York, NY, April 11-13, 2002

Another in June: “National projects and regional cooperation in South Caucasus”, paper for the "Nationalism, Identity and Regional Cooperation: Compatibilities and Incompatibilities" Special Convention Centro per l'Europa centro orientale e balcanica in association with ASN Bologna University Forlì, Italy, 4-9 June 2002

Also, one later in September: “Politics and Democracy in Georgia: A Transitional Society in Regional Perspective”, paper for the First World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies, University of Mainz, Germany, September 8-13, 2002

Two other papers are submitted to the conference “Georgia between Tradition and Modernity” to be held in Frankfurt on Oder, Germany, in 2002: “Political value orientations and political participation among Tbilisi population” and “Economic hardship and coping strategies”.

I also continue to work, in co-authorship with Dr. Stephen Jones (Mount Holyoke College) on the “Historical Dictionary of Georgia”, to be published by Scarecrow Press.

During the fellowship period, I was invited to join as a member the Linkages and Membership Committee of the "Central Eurasia Studies Society" (headquarters at Harvard University).

Summing up what has been presented above, I would like to say that although there are some achievements during the accounted period of time, in general I am not fully satisfied with the outcomes, due first to the shift of focus from security issues to more political culture topic, and second due to significant delay in the project implementation. At the same time, by launching the Institute for Policy Studies, we have created an important facility for independent policy analysis, with one of the focuses on the area of my IPF policy paper.

I am not fully satisfied with my direct outcome, as while I have considered the issues of regional security as planned initially, there was not enough time for paying due attention to implementation procedures and feasibility of suggestions developed during my work. Hence, I intend to request continuation of my research for one year..

George Tarkhan-Mouravi

Home Address: 4 G. Tsabadze St., Apt. 23, Tbilisi 380012 Georgia

Mailing Address: IPS, PO Box #158 (4), Tbilisi 380008 Georgia

Institute for Policy Analysis, 12 Melikishvili St., room 411, Tbilisi

Tel: +995-32-347263 /-253847 (H); Tel: +995-32-984034 (B);

GSM: 995-77-421827 / 995-99-915741; Fax: +995-32-932670

E-mail: vasitar@caucasus.net / giatm@lycos.com